La Salle is one of many NCAA tournament bubble teams. / Clement Britt, AP
by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports
by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports
- Filed Under
Days until Selection Sunday: 1
The big picture:
With Friday done and many borderline NCAA tournament teams done, the once cloudy picture surrounding the final few at-large slots is down to monitoring the handful of possible bid thieves remaining in conference tournaments.
This is the group of teams the Boise States, La Salles, Middle Tennessees, Virginias and others will be keeping an eye on Saturday and potentially even Sunday as well. If any of this group plays its way into the field, either by improving its at-large status or snatching an automatic bid with a conference tournament crown, it means one less slot for current teams on the edge of the field:
On the hot seat: Duke
On Friday, one of the main topics of this daily rundown was Minnesota's NCAA hopes in relation to the recency effect.
The basic premise: Just because the Golden Gophers were subpar in the second half of the season, it doesn't mean the first 16 games don't count. And while Minnesota's prospects of a long tournament run are dim, it doesn't mean it is in any danger of getting omitted.
So let's look at how forgetful people became when Duke stumbled against Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals.
This is the same Duke that is ranked No. 1 in the RPI, that played the nation's toughest schedule, that played the nation's toughest nonconference schedule, that went 11-5 on road and neutral courts, has six top-25 wins (only Indiana has more), has nine top-50 wins (only Kansas has more), has no losses to teams outside the top 100 and is 18-1 with the full roster it will take into the postseason.
There aren't four teams with a better profile than that. There won't be four teams with a better profile than that when the regular season is completed when the Big Ten title game goes final on Sunday afternoon.
And that's why you shouldn't expect to see Duke as anything but a No. 1 seed when the bracket is unveiled tomorrow, even if the most recent memory of the Blue Devils was failing to defend a scorching Maryland bunch.
Nightly winners:
Teams that took a step forward on Friday...
Nightly losers:
Teams that took a step back Friday...
Résumé worth dissecting: Boise State
The Broncos won five of six to close the regular season, doing their part to leave an impression by handling Colorado State and San Diego State on back-to-back Saturdays, then lost to San Diego State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. Based on overall profile, Boise State should slide into the field before fellow mid-major bubblers Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee, which also lost in their conference tournaments. Still, the Broncos are vulnerable, and the decision about their inclusion could be interpreted as a judgment on some of their Mountain West brethren considering those solid home conference wins are the foundation of much of their résumé.
On deck:
Stat of the day:
Maryland wants no part of joining one of the rarest groups of teams in college basketball: Those who have defeated Duke twice in a season and still missed the NCAA tournament.
The Terrapins defeated Duke in College Park in February and in Friday's ACC quarterfinals, but still can't expect to be in the tournament field at this stage. The only teams to defeat a Mike Krzyzewski-coached Duke team twice and still not earn an NCAA invitation were 2005 Maryland, 1995 Clemson, 1995 N.C. State, 1983 Wake Forest and 1982 Maryland.
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About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.
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Copyright 2013
USATODAY.com
Read the original story: Bubble Watch: A look at bid thieves who could rob Boise St., La Salle, Mid-Tenn.
