At the beginning of the season, no one could have envisioned the annual Michigan- Michigan State grudge match having this much importance, this much at stake, not with a first-year coach in East Lansing and a Michigan team loaded with talent and destined for the national championship game.
But for both, the season has taken interesting twists, and Saturday's game could mean the Big Ten championship.
Ninth-ranked Michigan State, the higher-ranked team for the first time since 1968, is 7-1 overall and the only unbeaten team in Big Ten play (4-0). Michigan, ranked 11th, is 7-2 and 4-1. The Wolverines must win their final three games to win their first Big Ten title since 2000 and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl.
"We know we can't lose another Big Ten game if we want to accomplish our goal," U-M senior quarterback John Navarre said. "They are in our way now, and they are leading the Big Ten right now, so it will be a great game."
Here are the key matchups in Saturday's game at Spartan Stadium, where the Spartans have won the last two against the Wolverines:
- John L. Smith vs. Lloyd Carr
Michigan Coach Lloyd Carr has the great big-game record (12-3 against top-10 teams) and tons of experience in this rivalry. But John L. is hot. He's making all the right moves in his first season at Michigan State. He can seemingly do no wrong right now.
Asked about this team's amazing turnaround, Smith said with a wink, "I told you guys, it's magic. You pull a rabbit out of a hat. We're going to have to pull another rabbit."
He was being facetious, but it's true -- Smith and has staff have performed some magic to get to 7-1.
Some MSU teams have entered this game too emotional, too tight. Smith's personality should keep this team more grounded. The Spartans will be better prepared for the Wolverines than they've been in several years.
But Carr has the Wolverines playing some of their best football since a 31-point, fourth-quarter comeback victory at Minnesota. Last week against Purdue, Michigan looked like the national title-type team it was projected to be.
But strange things happen to the Wolverines at MSU. They have lost two straight there and are 1-3 at Spartan Stadium under Carr.
- Smoker vs. Navarre
Who's the best quarterback in the Big Ten? Before the season, most said Navarre. Now, many are saying Jeff Smoker.
Both are playing their final Michigan-Michigan State game.
Smoker has completed 65.9 percent in MSU's spread offense with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hasn't thrown an interception in the last 4 1/2 games.
The Spartans flood the field with passing options -- receivers, running backs, tight ends -- and it's Smoker's job to find the open man. He's doing that as well as anyone.
"He has great accuracy and great mobility to do something with his feet when things break down in the passing game," Carr said of Smoker.
Navarre will finish his career with most of Michigan's passing records, but he has been frequently knocked for not being a big-game quarterback against ranked teams on the road during the regular season. The comeback at Minnesota might have gone a long way toward changing that reputation.
He will never be known for his quick feet, but Navarre has a strong arm and more-than-capable receivers, and he has played with renewed confidence since the Minnesota game.
- Special teams
The Spartans are getting major contributions from kicker Dave Rayner, punter Brandon Fields and kick-return specialist DeAndra Cobb.
Smith said the Spartans have to win this matchup.
Based on the season to this point, MSU has a big edge except in one special-teams category -- punt returns.
Michigan State hasn't found a game-breaker and Michigan has Steve Breaston, sixth nationally in punt-return average (17.0 yards). Breaston has scored twice on punt returns.
"The one single person you're most impressed with is that return guy," Smith said. "He's like a jet himself. He's got a rocket."
Purdue punted away from Breaston.
"We've done things like that," Smith said, grinning.
Fields has frequently driven the ball over the returner's head, but Smith said, "It will be harder to get it over this guy's head."
Michigan finally seems to have overcome its punt-coverage problems that led to defeat at Iowa. Punter Adam Finley is coming off his best game of the season, and freshman Garrett Rivas, who kicked the winner at Minnesota in the final seconds, has proven he has what it takes under pressure.
- MSU's secondary vs. U-M's receivers
The Spartans' secondary was vulnerable early in the season, made some improvements but then allowed 377 yards passing against Minnesota. MSU likes to play "man-free" coverage with free safety Jason Harmon playing deep while strong safety Eric Smith and cornerbacks Darren Barnett and Roderick Maples are in man coverage. But the Spartans haven't had to face a trio of receivers like this before. Not even close.
"On paper, the matchup is not comparable," MSU cornerbacks coach Paul Haynes said. "They're far better than what we are. They're big, they're strong, they're fast. They have all the tools. We took two steps back (in the secondary) against Minnesota. We have to play better. We're going to do what we do (defensively), and it puts a lot of pressure on those guys (the corners). Those guys have to be on top of their game."
After last week's game, Purdue Coach Joe Tiller called Michigan's receivers the best in the country. Certainly the Wolverines have considerable depth, and after an early-season case of the drops, they have been more than effective. Michigan averages 273.3 yards passing.
Braylon Edwards, a high-jumper during track season, is a big-play threat who has seven touchdowns. Jason Avant is the Wolverines' third-down threat, and Breaston is beginning to realize his explosiveness as a receiver.
- U-M's offensive line vs. MSU's front four
To handle Michigan's receivers, the Spartans will have to pressure Navarre and force him into mistakes, something Purdue couldn't do last week.
MSU leads the nation with 34 sacks, and Michigan has allowed 14. Carr credits Navarre for improving his recognition of blitzes and avoiding sacks.
End Greg Taplin, who missed most of the last two games, is expected to return from a knee injury. Taplin and tackle Matthias Askew are tied for the team lead with six sacks.
"It's crucial," Taplin said of pressuring Navarre. "I think they're going to come out and throw the ball against us because Minnesota had success against us. It's critical that we get after him. If he has time back there, he'll pick us apart."
MSU's defensive staff isn't afraid to take risks. Some timely blitzes could rattle Navarre, who has struggled at times on the road.
This is not a great Michigan line, but it has been solid in pass protection. Still, Michigan linemen rate themselves based on the running game. The Wolverines are third in the Big Ten, averaging 181.7 yards rushing, and they know that the team that has rushed better in this game typically wins.
Originally published Friday, October 31, 2003
