Here’s how I see the Big Ten shaping up this year:

1. Ohio State — The Buckeyes will win with a ball-control offense and staunch defense — trademarks of Jim Tressel’s four Division I-AA national championship squads. A favorable schedule that includes home games with Michigan and Penn State and no game with Michigan State will help.

2. Michigan — Watch out if this team rediscovers a running game to take some of the heat off quarterback John Navarre. The Wolves’ veteran defense may be on par with that of the 1997 national championship team. Yes, they gave up 45 points to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl, but they also logged 50 sacks and held opposing teams to an average of 90 yards rushing.

3. Penn State — I may be expecting too much too soon from sophomore quarterback Zack Mills, but I don’t think so. Not after seeing him last year against the Buckeyes. JoePa’s team is ready to bust out after back-to-back losing campaigns. The Lions finished 5-2 in their last seven games in 2001, averaging 30 points in that span. Their undoing may be a four-week stretch where they play OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin on the road.

4. Wisconsin — A lot hinges on the health of Ohio-bred wideout Lee Evans. He set a Big Ten record last season with 1,545 receiving yards, but suffered a serious knee injury in the spring. Even without Evans, the Badgers boast tailback Anthony Davis (the nation’s fifth-leading rusher: 1,466 yards) and one of the league’s few veteran quarterbacks in Brooks Bollinger. In fact, Bollinger would love to finish his career the way it began — by leading UW to a Rose Bowl victory.

5. Illinois — Everyone is dissing the poor Illini. If Michigan was the defending champ and returning 14 starters, like Illinois, “they’d probably be picked to win the national championship,” lamented coach Ron Turner. Figure it out, Ronnie. Your embarrassing loss to LSU in the Sugar Bowl (a 34-7 game at halftime) and the loss of four-year starting quarterback Kurt Kittner cost you major points with the pundits.

6. Michigan State — A lot of forecasters see the Spartans as a darkhorse candidate for the title, thanks to a potent passing attack. But I can’t see past coach Bobby Williams’ 5-11 Big Ten record and MSU’s four losses last season to non-bowl teams. I’m not convinced a dime could buy Williams a clue.

7. Purdue — I think Joe Tiller is one of the best coaches in the Big Ten, and this team will squeeze into the bowl picture. But sophomore quarterback Kyle Orton is probably a year away from leading the Boilers into title contention, and there are some questions about the receiving corps because of the skull fracture suffered by top wideout Taylor Stubblefield.

8. Northwestern — Coach Randy Walker says this team has more talent than the one that won a share of the Big Ten in 2000. I’m not convinced. The Cats have lost major producers in quarterback Zak Kustok and running back Damien Anderson and defenses are catching on to the spread attack that worked so well for Northwestern two years ago. Walker has hired new offensive and defensive coordinators, which tells you he’s rebuilding, not reloading, doesn’t it?

9. Minnesota — I’m picking the Gophers ahead of Iowa because they return key players in quarterback Asad Abdul-Khaliq and tailback Marion Barber III. The question is, will coach Glen Mason — whose failure to beat out Tressel for the OSU job is still bemoaned in some corners (even in Minnesota) — achieve a hat trick and lose to a MAC school for the third year in a row?

10. Iowa — I’m picking the Hawkeyes behind Minnesota because they lost their starting quarterback, leading rusher and top receiver from last year’s 7-5 bowl team. Kirk Ferentz is a good, young coach, but he’s not that good — yet.

11. Indiana — If Bobby Knight were still in Bloomington, he’d throw a chair at this lousy excuse for a football program. Whaddaya mean, only 49 non-freshmen on scholarship? It’s a good thing new coach Gerry DiNardo has a great sense of humor because he’s going to need it to survive the season.